By Coral Gables Gazette staff
With one week remaining before the April 21 deadline, Coral Gables voters have returned 6,536 ballots in the city’s first all-mail special election — more than 66 percent above the count recorded just 11 days ago.
The figures, drawn from Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections data updated Monday evening, show an election that has shifted significantly since early April. On April 2, with roughly three weeks left, 3,930 ballots had been returned — about 13 percent of the 30,342 active eligible voters. As of April 13, that figure stands at 6,536, or roughly 21.5 percent. The acceleration is substantial. Whether it reflects growing awareness of the referendum, organized outreach by supporters or opponents of the charter questions on the ballot, or simply the natural compression of returns as a deadline approaches is not yet clear.
The figures offer a mixed comparison with 2025. Last year’s general election drew 10,126 total votes — in-person and mail combined — out of 34,169 active eligible voters, a turnout of roughly 29.6 percent. This year’s all-mail election has already returned 6,536 ballots out of a smaller eligible pool of 30,342, and has already surpassed 2025’s mail-ballot subset of 4,802. Whether final participation approaches last year’s overall total will depend on the pace of returns in the final week — a threshold that would require roughly 3,600 more ballots. The city’s active eligible voter pool has also shrunk since last year: from 34,169 to 30,342, a reduction of nearly 4,000 voters. As the Gazette has previously reported, the gap reflects Florida’s inactive voter classification — residents who received ballots but are excluded from the official turnout denominator because they have not voted in recent general elections and have not responded to address confirmation notices.
Who is returning ballots
The partisan composition of returned ballots has shifted modestly since early April but the fundamental picture holds. Republican voters account for 2,671 of the 6,536 ballots returned — 40.9 percent of the total. Democratic voters account for 2,169, or 33.2 percent. Voters with no party affiliation account for 1,589, or 24.3 percent. The remaining 107 ballots come from voters registered with other parties.
On April 2, Republicans held a larger share — 42.3 percent — suggesting their early advantage has narrowed somewhat as overall participation has accelerated. Democratic returns have increased their share from 31.8 to 33.2 percent. Whether that closing gap reflects Democratic outreach in the final stretch or simply broader participation across the electorate is not yet apparent from the available data.
Republican voters still return ballots at a rate that exceeds their proportion of the active electorate. Whether that reflects organized outreach, mail-ballot habits, or other factors, the composition of returned ballots will shape the outcome if it holds through April 21.
Where participation is concentrated
The precinct data continues to show wide variation across the city. Precinct 636, anchored by the Coral Gables Branch Library, now leads all precincts with 904 returned ballots — up sharply from 540 on April 2, a 67 percent increase in 11 days. Precinct 601, centered on the Country Club of Coral Gables, follows with 726. Precincts 604, 611 and 617 each top 560.
At the other end, Precinct 646 — at the city’s southern edge, using the Pinecrest Branch Library as its polling site — has returned just 47 ballots, up from 25 on April 2. The gap between the most and least active precincts now stands at nearly 19 to 1. Precinct 635 and Precinct 640, anchored by Christ Congregational Church and the Watsco Center at the University of Miami respectively, also remain well below the city average.
The structural conditions of this election have not changed. Ballots must be received — not merely postmarked — by April 21. There is no ballot curing for errors or missing signatures. In-person drop-off remains limited to the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections office in Doral, well outside Coral Gables. Those conditions apply equally to every voter. The precinct gaps suggest those conditions are not experienced equally across the city.
What remains
The eight charter questions on the ballot — including whether to permanently move city elections from April to November — require a simple majority of votes cast to pass. With more than 23,800 voters yet to return ballots, the final week will determine not only overall turnout, but whether the current trajectory holds—or shifts in ways that reshape the outcome.
Ballots must be received by the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections by 7 p.m. on Tuesday, April 21. Drop-off in person is available at 2700 NW 87th Avenue, Doral.
This Post Has 8 Comments
Very helpful.
Thank you,
Jackson Rip Holmes
You are welcome.
In 2016, the Commission (with Lago as a first-term Commissioner) unanimously rejected the vote-by-mail (“VBM”) referendum process because it costs $120,000 with few voters. Instead, we had the 2016 referendum vote in November with early voting, Election Day precinct voting, ballot drop-off at the library and mail-in ballots. 22,937 voted in 2016 with 15,885 voting for runoff elections – the hallmark of democracy. The cost was only $20,000. The 2026 VBM will cost at least $150,000 due to postage increases. Only 6,536 have voted for the 2026 referendums – 28.5% of the 2016 referendum vote costing $130,000 less! Vice-Mayor Anderson emailed (and mailed) a political advertisement “newsletter” (without the required legend) pushing for the desired outcome by Lago’s majority. That political advertisement is on the City of Coral Gables webpage! The City Clerk and City Attorney are ignoring a public records request related to Anderson’s political advertisement.
Mayor Lago stated at the Townhall meeting that we should not be afraid of more voters. But he is spending an extra $130,000 of our money to engineer a low-vote result! Why? Because Mayor Lago has filed paperwork to be re-elected as mayor and believes that he can only win with voters who do not know his campaign of lies, deception and support from real estate developers who receive Zoning Code exceptions increasing density and infrastructure demands. It is important to VOTE NO to stop this anti-democratic attempt to silence informed voters who hold elected officials accountable and work to preserve our quality of life.
Thank you.
Exceptionally helpful, Sir.
Jackson Rip Holmes
The fact that the three commissioners who hold the majority on the dais, Lago, Anderson and Lara, voted against the Charter Review Committee’s recommendations should sound an alarm to all our residents.
Changes to the Coral Gables City Charter are a dangerous step on a downhill slippery slope. Our City Charter is the equivalent of our city’s constitution. Changes aren’t to be made without careful consideration, which hasn’t happened here.
And the fact that the majority on the commission would disregard the recommendations made by the very committee they appointed to review the charter should make all voters wonder why!
Lago says they are his referendums.
Vote NO to the changes to our city charter.
I have now fully read your article.
I AM DEEPLY GRATEFUL TO THE GABLES
GAZETTE FOR YOUR CONCERNED COVERAGE
OF THIS REFERENDUM.
There is much more to say, but I will add one remark.
I Canvassed for retaining Democracy in Coral Gables,
and not allowing LYING DEVELOPERS TO DEFRAUD PEOPLE INTO VOTING AGAINST THEIR OWN
INTENTIONS.
Of the voters I spoke with:
60% hate the development which has teken place in Coral Gables.
Only 10% supported changing the Election date.
The City Clerk told me himself he opposed the Election of Ariel Fernandez and Melissa Castro, and that, as a result of that Anti Development, he was proposing an Ordinance to move the Elections to November, to help Developers win Elections.
I do not see how developers and their bought and paid for candidates / Commissioners so thoroughly, and relentlessly,
VIOLATE GOD’S TEN COMMANDMENTS! Specifically the Commandment, “THOU SHALT NOT LIE!”
An example is Vince Lago, whose income in life comes from developers — construction company tied to development, and permitting for developers — marketing himself as anti development.
THE BIG LIE!
How does he get to Heaven, LYING TO VOTERS FOR HIS OWN ENRICHMENT (shaking down developers awarded permission for developments in Coral Gables, for the construction contract, e g King’s Creek restaurant) ???
Sincerely,
Jackson Rip Holmes
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