More than 7,100 Coral Gables voters cast ballots before Election Day—fewer than in 2021 but enough to highlight energized precincts, engaged bases, and the sharp divides shaping this year’s three hotly contested races. Strong early turnout in Commissioner Kirk Menendez’s home precinct and a softer showing in Mayor Vince Lago’s suggests there’s enthusiasm for change in the mayoral race, with door-to-
door engagement emerging as a decisive factor.

According to Miami-Dade Elections Department data updated April 7, 4,664 vote-by-mail ballots and 2,528 in-person early votes were cast over the weekend of April 5–6 at the Coral Gables Branch Library. The combined 7,192 ballots represent a slight decline from the 7,444 cast before Election Day in 2021, when pandemic conditions drove up mail voting. This year’s totals suggest a return to more typical voting behavior, with early voting still robust but not as dominant.

Neighborhood dynamics, candidate footprints

Early voting data reveals distinct geographic patterns in turnout, often aligning with candidate strongholds. Precinct 636 (Coral Gables Branch Library), home to Menendez, led all precincts with 1,126 ballots cast—an increase from 775 in 2021. That surge hints at a well-organized ground game and suggests momentum for Menendez’s mayoral bid.

In contrast, Mayor Lago’s home precinct, 612 (St. Augustine Catholic Church), recorded 212 early ballots, down from 227 in 2021. The dip may signal softer support or an Election Day-focused strategy. Either way, the difference in early turnout between the two candidates’ neighborhoods could be an early indicator of how the race will break.

In the Commission, Group II race, both Vice Mayor Rhonda Anderson and one of the two challengers, Felix Pardo, reside in Precinct 636, further elevating its significance as a potential bellwether for the broader election. Turnout there surged ahead of every other precinct, suggesting it could decisively shape both races.

In Commission, Group III, Richard Lara—backed by Lago —resides in Precinct 608, (Country Club of Coral Gables) which recorded 586 early ballots, 52 more than in 2021. Challenger Claudia Miro’s home precinct, 604 (American Legion Post No. 98), logged 613 ballots, while the third candidate Tom Wells shares Precinct 608 with Lara. The even distribution of early turnout across these precincts suggests a closely fought contest, with no single candidate clearly dominating their home turf.

Mail ballots decline, in-person early voting rebounds

Mail-in ballots accounted for roughly 65 percent of early votes this year —down significantly from 79 percent in 2021. This shift likely reflects post-pandemic normalization, with more voters choosing to return to in-person voting. The city’s two-day early voting period drew 2,528 residents, with heavier turnout Sunday than Saturday.

Precincts varied widely in their early participation. While 636 and 601 (Coral Gables Congregational Church) posted combined turnout above 1,900 ballots (27 percent of all early votes and mail ballots cast), others—such as 635 (Christ Congregational Church) and 646 (Pinecrest Brand Library) —remained low-performing, with just 133 and 36 ballots cast, respectively. Such disparities suggest that local contests, proximity to city hall and neighborhood organizing had significant influence on voter behavior.

Looking ahead to Election Day

If historical patterns hold, another 30-35 percent of total ballots will be cast on Election Day, potentially pushing overall turnout above 9,000. Although forecasts call for rain and possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon which could keep voters from the polls. In 2021, early voting and mail ballots accounted for roughly 71 percent of total votes. The rest came on Election Day—and proved decisive in several contests.

With tight margins expected in the mayoral races and the other two commission races, Tuesday’s turnout will likely determine whether Menendez’s strong early showing holds, or whether Lago’s base turns out in force to close the gap. The results in key precincts like 601 (also The Country Club of Coral Gables), 607, 608, 611 (Coral Gables Senior High School), 617 (Coral Gables Fire Station No. 3) and 636 will be closely watched.

Broader picture

Beyond numbers, the early voting data underscores a city at a political crossroads. Turnout was strongest in areas home to high-profile candidates, suggesting a deepening polarization among politically active neighborhoods. While Coral Gables remains civically engaged, the geographic divides hint at larger tensions over development, transparency, and the future direction of city leadership.