Coral Gables Gazette readers who answered an online poll in the closing weeks of the Coral Gables campaign favored Commissioner Melissa Castro over challenger Nestor Menendez by more than 2 to 1. They also preferred Gonzalo Sanabria in the open Group V race and Laureano Cancio for mayor, two candidates who trail their opponents by wide margins in campaign money.
The poll was not scientific. Readers chose whether to take part, and the Gazette did not verify whether they are registered to vote in Coral Gables. Because participants were self-selected, the results have no statistically valid margin of sampling error. They describe the preferences of the readers who responded and offer no forecast of the Nov. 3 election.
How the poll worked
The Gazette ran the poll on its website from Oct. 19 through Oct. 26 using CrowdSignal, an online survey service. It asked, “If the Coral Gables municipal election were held today, for whom would you vote in each race?” Each race was a separate question, and readers could skip any of them. The software was set to block repeat votes.
The poll received 258 submissions, not counting three test entries the Gazette made before publishing. The results reported here include only the 225 submissions that CrowdSignal located in Florida, and 213 of those answered at least one question. No reader left a written comment.
Most of the responses arrived on two days. Oct. 20 brought 129 of the 225 Florida submissions and Oct. 23 brought 57, which together account for 83 percent. Castro and Sanabria led on both days. Cancio’s share in the mayor’s race rose from 39 percent on Oct. 20 to 54 percent on Oct. 23. The data do not show why participation rose on those dates.
Castro posts the clearest margin
The Group IV race produced the poll’s widest gap and its smallest share of undecided readers. Castro received 138 selections, or 65.7 percent, and Menendez 62, or 29.5 percent. Ten readers, fewer than 5 percent, chose no one.
Castro, who was first elected in 2023, is seeking a second term. Menendez, a former member of the city’s Planning and Zoning Board, Transportation Advisory Board and Charter Review Committee, is challenging her.
That result runs against the fundraising. Menendez held an estimated $46,503 on Oct. 16, according to the Gazette’s analysis of campaign reports, while Castro held an estimated $8,674. In the two weeks ending Oct. 16, Menendez raised $7,700 and spent $7,664, and Castro raised $3,025 and spent $6,555.
No majority in the mayor’s race
No mayoral candidate received a majority. Cancio drew 87 selections, or 40.8 percent, Lago 63, or 29.6 percent, and Holmes 35, or 16.4 percent, while 28 readers, or 13.1 percent, chose no one.
Lago is seeking a fourth consecutive term as mayor. If reelected, the city’s consecutive-service term limit would prevent him from running again in 2028. Cancio ran for commissioner last year, and Holmes, who has run for city office before and regularly attends commission meetings, is making another bid.
Lago reported $65,750 in contributions in the two weeks ending Oct. 16, and his campaign held an estimated $86,238. Coral Gables First, the political committee associated with him, held an estimated $248,771, though its money is legally separate from his campaign account. Cancio reported no contributions in that period, and Holmes reported a $65 loan to his campaign.
Group V draws the most undecided readers
The race for the seat Commissioner Ariel Fernandez is leaving had the largest undecided share of the three. Sanabria received 105 selections, or 50 percent, and Whiting 69, or 32.9 percent, while 36 readers, or 17.1 percent, chose no one.
Sanabria serves on the city’s Planning and Zoning Board and ran for the commission in 2009. Whiting has a background in government, communications and political campaigns, including work for Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
Whiting held an estimated $51,796 on Oct. 16, and Sanabria held an estimated $1,610, according to the Gazette’s analysis. In the latest two-week period, Whiting raised $12,394 and spent $21,575, and Sanabria raised $2,000 and spent $6,472.
Respondents often chose the same combinations of candidates
Many respondents chose candidates as a group. The most common combination, picked by 54 readers, was Cancio, Castro and Sanabria. Next came Lago, Menendez and Whiting, with 29, followed by Holmes, Castro and Sanabria, with 26.
Of the 63 readers who chose Lago, 45 also chose Menendez and 40 chose Whiting. Of the 138 who chose Castro, 107 picked Cancio or Holmes for mayor. The pattern shows how these readers sorted the races. It says nothing about whether the campaigns coordinated or how other voters will choose.
What a reader poll cannot show
Unlike a survey designed to represent a broader electorate, the Gazette’s poll relied on voluntary participation. Respondents were not selected through a representative sampling process, and the results were not adjusted to reflect the characteristics of Coral Gables voters. The poll therefore cannot reliably measure citywide voter preferences or predict the election.
The poll also cannot measure the forces that usually shape municipal elections, such as incumbency, campaign spending and turnout. Lago is the incumbent mayor, and his campaign and the committee associated with him hold far more money than his opponents. Menendez and Whiting each hold several times the estimated cash of their opponents. Of the three candidates receiving the largest shares of responses in their respective races, Castro is the only incumbent.
Turnout is especially hard to predict this year. Coral Gables voters approved moving city elections from April to November in a referendum last April, with 66.04 percent in favor. The mayor’s and commission races will now share the Nov. 3 ballot with statewide and federal contests for the first time, and a larger, broader electorate may look little like the readers who answered this poll.
What comes next
Voters will choose a mayor and two commissioners on Nov. 3. The Gazette will report the results that night.
Author: Coral Gables Gazette News Staff
Originally established in 1996 and relaunched as a digital publication in February 2025, the Coral Gables Gazette is an independent local news organization dedicated to factual, objective and accountable community journalism. Our newsroom reports on the people, policies, institutions and events shaping Coral Gables, Florida, providing residents with timely, informative coverage of the issues affecting their community. Our reporting includes City Hall, local government, municipal elections, public spending, real estate development, business, education, arts and culture, and neighborhood affairs throughout the City Beautiful. We follow City Commission decisions, examine public records and report on the businesses, organizations and individuals contributing to Coral Gables. We believe informed residents are essential to a healthy, engaged community. Stories published under the Coral Gables Gazette News Staff byline are prepared or compiled by the publication's editorial team. We strive for accuracy, fairness, transparency and clear distinctions between news reporting, opinion and advertising. Readers are encouraged to submit news tips, corrections, editorial inquiries and story suggestions through our Contact page and learn more about our standards through our Editorial Policy.
