Coral Gables just witnessed a pivotal election that was shaped not only by the enduring strength of incumbents but also by geographic voting patterns, turnout trends, and the persistent influence of money in local politics. From precincts near City Hall to ones farther away, voter engagement was influenced by the proximity of political centers and historical support for incumbents.
Voter Engagement: Turnout Shifts and Precinct-Specific Dynamics
One of the most significant factors in the 2025 elections was the turnout variation between precincts. As expected, areas closer to City Hall, such as Precinct 601 (Country Club of Coral Gables) and Precinct 604 (American Legion Post No. 98), saw relatively stable turnout, with minor fluctuations. These precincts, generally more engaged and politically aware, reflect Coral Gables’ political epicenter, where residents are often more familiar with ongoing local governance and election dynamics.
For example, Precinct 601, home to outsider Michael Abbott, showed a slight decrease in turnout (-0.12%) compared to 2021, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for an outsider candidate. On the other hand, Precinct 608 (also Country Club of Coral Gables), located near City Hall, saw a +2.69% increase in voter turnout, reflecting a resurgence of political engagement in areas traditionally loyal to incumbent Mayor Vince Lago.
However, Precinct 611 (Coral Gables High School), which is south of Bird Road – long accepted as the political DMZ in Coral Gables, saw a dramatic -11.69% decline in turnout. This marked a significant shift, possibly influenced by voter apathy or dissatisfaction with the incumbents. It also suggests a trend where suburban areas—further from the political center—might show signs of disengagement, as voters in these precincts are less attuned to the inner workings of city government.
Precinct-Level Shifts: The Impact of Geographic Proximity to City Hall
The precinct-level shifts paint a more granular picture of how proximity to City Hall influenced voter engagement. Precincts like 601, 604, and 608, situated closer to the city’s political epicenter, experienced more stable turnout—a sign that these areas are likely more informed and invested in local politics.
Meanwhile, precincts like Precinct 611, which is farther removed from City Hall, showed substantial decreases in voter turnout. This suggests that voters in these more suburban precincts may feel disconnected from city politics, or they may be less likely to participate in municipal elections.
Despite turnout shifts, incumbents like Lago and Anderson managed to hold their ground, largely due to their political networks and the trust they have cultivated among voters near City Hall. This further highlights how geographical political alignment plays a role in voter behavior—a dynamic that may become more pronounced as Coral Gables continues to evolve.
Campaign Spending: The Power of Money in Local Politics
In both the Mayor’s Race and Commission Group II, campaign spending played a decisive role. Vince Lago, seeking his third term as mayor, spent a substantial $377,562—slightly than in 2021, when he spent $380,488. His ability to dominate social media and engage directly with voters was reflected in his strong performance across almost all precincts.
Rhonda Anderson, the incumbent vice mayor for Commission Group II, spent $44,189 in 2025, significantly less than her $90,927 for her first run for office in 2021. Despite the reduced spending, Anderson’s ability to retain her seat with 58.24% of the vote underscores the power of name recognition and incumbency in areas where she has a long-standing political base.
Felix Pardo and Laureano Cancio, despite being anti-incumbent challengers, were outspent significantly. Their campaigns, underfunded and lacking in the same level of political infrastructure, struggled to gain traction, particularly in precincts where money-driven campaigning has a more visible impact.
Money and Influence: A Tale of Two Campaigns
Money was a central factor in Coral Gables in this election cycle. Despite spending less in 2025, Rhonda Anderson was able to maintain her hold on Commission Group II, largely due to her incumbency and deep-rooted political connections. Similarly, Vince Lago leveraged his $377,562 war chest to dominate the mayoral race, reinforcing the idea that, in local politics, well-funded campaigns still enjoy a significant advantage.
Conclusion: Shifting Voter Behavior in a Changing Political Landscape
The 2025 Coral Gables election underscored the importance of geographic and political proximity in shaping voter behavior. While the incumbents retained control, their ability to maintain support near City Hall contrasted with declining turnout farther removed from the city center. As Coral Gables faces evolving demographics and political dynamics, these trends indicate that voter engagement will remain a key factor in future races.
The 2025 results also reveal that while money can be a powerful force in shaping the electoral landscape, turnout trends and precinct-specific dynamics will become increasingly important in determining the future direction of local politics. The city may soon see more competition from grassroots campaigns or outsiders able to tap into voter dissatisfaction, particularly in precincts where voter engagement has been historically lower.
This Post Has 8 Comments
What about 636? Home to both Rhonda and Pardo. Kirk also?
This has always been a bellwether precinct.
The only thing we see in this analysis, “Money, Money, and Mo Money,” is that democracy doesn’t exist; elections are bought by the powerful; democracy is an illusion, or a lie. Another thing, seeing the texts and emails that candidates sent against each other, denouncing each other’s corruption, we come to the conclusion that there was, honestly, no one to vote for. As the famous line from the novel “The Leopard” goes, the candidates “claimed change so that everything would stay the same”. After decades of living in the Beautiful City, we see how they’ve destroyed beauty. Thank you. Greetings.
The only thing we see in this analysis, “Money, Money, and Mo Money,” is that democracy doesn’t exist; elections are bought by the powerful; democracy is an illusion, or a lie. Another thing, seeing the texts and emails that candidates sent against each other, denouncing each other’s corruption, we come to the conclusion that there was, honestly, no one to vote for. As the famous line from the novel “The Leopard” goes, the candidates claimed change so that everything would stay the same. After decades of living in the Beautiful City, we see how they’ve destroyed beauty. Thank you. Greetings.
We are also seeing the effects of NEW residents from NY, NJ, CA, etc. they come from cities where well funded politicians ALWAYS win the elections. Those who have the biggest presence and make the most noise get the vote. These are new voters. They don’t know the history or politics of Coral Gables. Nor are they as invested in maintaining our “small town” , low density ambiance.
If “change” is truly desired, i.e. civility, then vote for the only self-funded candidate in the runoff (Wells), which means he is beholden to no one (on or off the dais) and will vote on the merits of an issue.
Absolutely 100% in agreement with you!
Vote for Tom Wells.
Absolutely Lou S.!
Novel approach by Tom Wells, as a candidate, now in the run off April 22.
Nice, for a change isn’t it?
There is a freshness in the air.
If it’s not broken. Don’t fix it. I agree with the course that the city is taken with Lago and Anderson. We now need Lara. No.more shenanigans from the minion gallery.